PUBLIC OPINION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR
Zsolt Enyedi and Gábor Tóka
Winter and Spring Term 1996
Department of Political Science
CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY



Course Description

The course will examine various models of electoral behaviour, like issue, cleavage and economic voting, party and ideological identification. In addition to the analysis of the different models' normative and practical implications, both theoretical and purely technical problems of empirical verification in survey based, econometric and ecological research designs will be discussed in depth.

The course will also help students to improve their understanding of statistical analyses and tables. No prior knowledge of quantitative analytical techniques is assumed, though. Students' performance will be evaluated according to the quality of their classroom participation (20%), written homework (40%), and their results on in-class tests dealing with the theoretical issues addressed by the readings and the lectures (40%). During the third trimester students will be expected to present case studies on the usual explanations of voting behaviour in individual countries.

Topic one.

The history of electoral behaviour research: Contrasts between ecological and survey based analyses.
Requested readings:
Powell, Bingham Jr., 1982. Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, pp. 12-15, 111-122.
Kolosi, Tamas, Ivan Szelenyi, Sonja Szelenyi, and Bruce Western, 1992. "The Making of Political Fields in Post-Communist Transition. Classes and Parties in Hungary, 1989-90." In: Post-Communist Transition - Emerging Pluralism in Hungary, ed. by Andras Bozoki, Andras Körösenyi, and George Schöpflin. London: Frances Pinter, pp. 132-162.

Topic two.
Election forecasts: Conceptual and empirical distinctions between systematic measurement errors, the volatility of voting intentions, bandwagon and underdog effects.
Requested readings:
Buchanan, William, 1986. "Election Predictions: An Empirical Assessment." Public Opinion Quarterly 50: 222-227.
Diskin, Abraham, and Dan S. Felsenthal, 1981. "Do They Lie?" International Political Science Review 11: 403-422.
Granberg, Donald, and Sören Holmberg, 1988. The Political System Matters: Social Psychology and Voting Behavior in Sweden and the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 136-165.
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth, 1983. "Political Opinion Polling in Germany." In: Political Opinion Polling. An International Review, ed. by Robert M. Worcester. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd. pp. 44-60 (only pp. 44-55 are to be read).

Topic three.
An overview of the party identification and the rational choice models of electoral decisions.
Requested readings:
Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller, 1987. Elections and Voters: A Comparative Introduction. London: Macmillan, pp. 101-125, 130-162.

Topic four.
Party identification, normal vote, the channel of causality: Advocates and critics of the Michigan theories.
Requested readings:
Stokes, Donald E., Angus Campbell, and Warren E. Miller, (1958) 1974. "Components of Electoral Decisions." In: Political Behavior and Public Opinion: Comparative Analyses, ed. by Lewis Bowman, and G.R. Boynton, 1974. Englewood Cliff, N.J.: Prentice Hall, pp. 347-370.
Niemi, Richard G., and M. Kent Jennings, 1991. "Issues and Inheritance in the Formation of Party Identification." American Journal of Political Science 35: 970-988.
Niemi, Richard G., and Anders Westholm, 1992. "Political Institutions and Political Socialization. A Cross-National Study." Comparative Politics 25: 25-41.

Topic five.
The relation between cleavage theory and the changes in the socio-demographic determinants of party preferences.
Requested readings:
Rose, Richard, 1974. "Introduction." In: Electoral Behavior. A Comparative Handbook, ed. by Richard Rose. New York: The Free Press.
Lijphart, Arend, 1980. "Language, Religion, Class and Party Choice: Belgium, Canada, Switzerland and South Africa Compared." In: Electoral Participation. A Comparative Handbook, ed. by Richard Rose. London: Sage, pp. 283-328.
Franklin, Mark N., 1992. "The Decline of Cleavage Politics." In: Mark N. Franklin, Thomas T. Mackie, Henry Valen, with Clive Bean et al., Electoral Change. Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 383-405.

Topic six.
New politics: value change and conflicts.
Requested readings:
Inglehart, Ronald, 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, pp. 3-14, 66-103.

Topic seven.
Authoritarianism: the effect of personality on ideological orientations.
Requested readings:
Adorno, T.W., Else Frenkel-Brunswik, Daniel J. Levinson, Newitt R. Sanford, 1950. The Authoritarian Personality. New York: W.W. Norton and Company. Inc., pp. 1-16, 222-242.
McFarland, Sam, Vladimir Agayev, and Marina Ablakina, 1993. "The Authoritarian Personality in the United States and the Former Soviet Union." In: Strength and Weakness: The Authoritarian Personality Today, ed. by W.F. Stone, G. Lederer, and R. Christie. New York: Springer Verlag.

Topic eight.
The structure and the dimensions of social attitudes.

Requested readings:
Ray, John J. 1973. "Conservativism, Authoritarianism and Related Variables a Review and Empirical Study" In: Glenn D. Wilson (ed.) The Psychology of Conservatism. London, New York: Academic Press, pp. 17-35.
Fleishman, John A. 1988. "Attitude Organization in the General Public: Evidence for a Bidimensional Structure. " Social Forces 67: 159-183.

Topic nine.
The new radical Right.
Requested readings:
Ignazi, Piero 1992. "The Silent Counter-Revolution" EJPR, 22: 3-34.
Kitschelt, Herbert 1991. "Left-Libertarians and Right-Authoritarians: Is the New Right a Response to the New Left in European Politics?" Paper prepared for the Multidisciplinary Conference on The Radical Right in Western Europe, Nov. 7-9, 1991.

Topic ten.
Conceptualization and measurement of issue voting: Proximity, directional and salience models of party choice; Measuring the impact of valence and positional issues and of the uncertainty of issue positions.
Requested readings:
Denver, David, and Gordon Hands, 1990. "Issues, Principles or Ideology? How Young Voters Decide." Electoral Studies 9: 19-36.
Knutsen, Oddbjorn, forthcoming. "Party Choice." In: The Impact of Values, ed. by Jan van Deth. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rabinowitz, George, 1978. "On the Nature of Political Issues: Insights from a Spatial Analysis." American Journal of Political Science 28: 793-817.
Rabinowitz, George, and Stuart Elaine Macdonald, 1989. "A Directional Theory of Issue Voting. " American Political Science Review 83: 93-121.

Topic eleven.
The impact of the mass media and the economy.
Requested readings:
Hershey, Marjorie Randon, 1989. "The Campaign and the Media." In: Gerald M. Pomper et al., The Election of 1988: Reports and Interpretations. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, pp. 73-102.
Iyengar, Shanto, Mark D. Peters, and Donald R. Kinder, 1982. "Experimental Demonstrations of the 'Not-So-Minimal' Consequences of Television Programs." American Political Science Review 78: 848-858.
Mutz, Diana C., 1992. "Mass Media and the Depoliticization of Personal Experience." American Journal of Political Science 36: 483-508.
Kleinnijenhuis, Jan, and Ewald M. Rietberg, 1995. "Parties, Media, the Public and the Economy: Patterns of Societal Agenda-setting." European Journal of Political Research 28: 95- 118.

Topic twelve.
Economic voting.
Requested readings:
Powell, G. Bingham, Jr., and Guy D. Whitten, 1993. "A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context." American Journal of Political Science 37: 391-414.
Remmer, Karen L., 1993. "The Political Economy of Elections in Latin America." American Political Science Review 87: 393-407.
Remmer, Karen L., 1991. "The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s." American Political Science Review 85: 777-800.

Topic thirteen.
Empirical analyses of political representation.
Requested readings:
Bartels, Larry M., 1991. "Constituency Opinion and Congressional Policy Making: The Reagan Defense Buildup." American Political Science Review 85: 457-474.
Petry, Francois, 1991. "Fragile Mandate: Party Programmes and Public Expenditures in the French Fifth Republic." European Journal of Political Research 20: 149-171.
Brooks, Joel L., 1985. "Democratic Frustration in the Anglo-American Polities: A Quantification of Inconsistency Between Mass Public Opinion and Public Policy." Western Political Quarterly 38: 250-261.
Bialecki, Ireneusz, and Bogdan Mach, 1992. "The Social and Economic Orientations of Polish Legislators Against a Background of the View of Polish Society." The Polish Sociological Bulletin 97: 167-186.

Topic fourteen.
Non-spatial models of electoral behaviour.
Requested readings:
Budge, Ian, and Dennis J. Farlie, 1983. Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-three Democracies. London: George Allen & Unwin.



CRC-Curriculum Resource Center
CEU Budapest, Hungary
Modified: July, 1996

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